The Future is Rich

I’ve spent much of my time in the past ten years reading books and doing online research about the future.  The future of society, technology, the economy, individual stocks and so on.  But something that I've seen more and more of as the economy has gotten worse, is the futurist for hire.  The theme of this type of futurist is common: “for a minor fee, I’ll tell you how you can use my predictions about the future to make money.”  While I believe that some of the people out there who write books about the future are legitimate scientists who are interested in the movements of markets or technological trends, most of them are snake oil salesmen.

Anyone who has read even a portion of the Bible will know what is said about false prophets, and it lets us know that they’ve been around for millenia.  The passages aren’t very kind to these diviners, soothsayers and oracles because they take advantage of people in times of tribulation.  They offer nothing of value, and just paint a grim picture of current events so that you’ll buy into their advice about how to get rich or gain power.  But the reality is that you’d be better off randomly guessing what to do. 

The same applies to these people trying to sell you investment advice based on their so-called expert analysis.  But no matter how credentialed these guys might be, it doesn’t mean they’re right.  Their assumptions may be wrong.  Their theories may be defunct. They may be trying to sway public opinion for political gain. They may just be making it up just to make a quick buck.  A question is asked and out comes an opinion.  You don’t know anything other than that the person telling you is supposed to know what he’s talking about.

What needs to be looked at in these situations is the source of information.  This is usually a person telling you that he knows the future and wants to sell it to you so you can make money with it.  Why wouldn’t he just use this future information to make money with and keep it all to himself?  Why would he want you to compete with him in the marketplace once he’s shared it with you?  The answer is that he doesn’t really know what he’s talking about.  If he did know, he wouldn’t tell you, because that would devalue the information, and he wouldn’t be able to use it for himself.

My advice for those who are looking into the future to make investment decisions,  go to the library and learn about how companies’ financial statements are analyzed or study economic theory.  Learn about new technologies, how they work and how they will be used.  Read the news about current events.  Learn the methods of these experts and try them out to see if they work for you.  Enough can’t be said about doing your own research and thinking for yourself.

Knowledge is power and power means money.  No one will ever give it to you or sell it to you cheaply.  You need to get it for yourself, so don’t be taken in by would-be scam artists who tell you they will just hand it to you.